Sunday, April 26, 2009

Sensex may give up recent gains, post elections











The sensex might see a downfall in case there is no clear mandate after elections. The market is not going to sustain recent rallies if there is a hung parliament,i.e. no party gets a clear majority to form government at the centre . This will be a shot in the arm of Left-parties and they will wield immense power in govt. formation which ,in turn, will not be a healthy sign for the battered Indian economy.
With the market not showing any downturn for some days, it can be assumed that the tough times are over. But you never know when market will take a turn contrary to the perception of masses. And the election results can play a spoilsport if third front ( i don't know whether it exists in reality or in election speeches) emerges as kingmaker. It is in the interest of Indian economy that any alliance( as chances of any single party getting the mandate are remote) gets a clear cut majority to form the govt. at the centre because only a strong govt. can take strong decisions to revive the economy.
Many analysts ,worth their names, have said that the recent upswing was a result of bear market rally. But whether this is a bull market rally or a bullish phase in a bear market is still debatable. One can go on arguing till the cows come home. But in my opinion, it is not for nothing that the market has reached these levels. There is something which has helped the market to bounce back to the current levels. Whether this rally continues after the elections is hard to predict at this juncture as a lot depends on the results.
As an investor we should not be concerned about whether its bullish rally or bearish one. Rather we should be more interested in following the trend. One thing i have learnt ( although after loosing some money) that never have pre-concieved notions about the market movement. Either get along with the trend or just stay away....or else you are inviting troubles.
Let us logically weigh the possible three outcomes of the elections:
(i) A Congress-led government at the centre will bring a sigh of relief to the markets as they are expected to take some hard decisions in the large interests of economy and if we are able to sustain the current bounce back, we will rally some more in salutation.
(ii) The BJP-led NDA govt. at the centre will be a positive sign for the entire broking community and the market will rally more.
(iii) And third-front coming to power or even emerging as kingmaker will be a serious concern as they will pose a threat to the economic reforms.
A Nielsen study indicates over 200 seats for the Congress-led UPA which is far removed from what other pundits are saying. If that is the case, then chances are that there will be a Cong led govt at the centre and this will certainly boost the economy. Having said that, there would still be a fair amount of nervousness leading up to counting day and one can expect unwinding of positions ahead of that which can lead to downturn in the sensex.
The degree of volatility would depend on the emergence of third front as kingmaker. However the possibility of market testing new lows seems to be a distant one. In addition what is seen as a bear market rally, positive news coming from US seems to play a dominant role in current market rally and hopefully the trend will continue in future.
" Happy investing....."




Monday, April 20, 2009

A Salute to The Spirit of Mumbai


Last year in August, I came to Mumbai with my baggage and dreams in my eyes of doing something big as so many people have done it and so many people will do it.
The first thing I noticed after reaching here was the fast life.
It seemed People do not have time for anything. Work has kept them away from everything. Initially one finds it difficult to cope with the Mumbai’s hectic life but in due course of time you become a part of the city and do not mind the hectic pace. How fast life in Mumbai is? At times you feel that Mumbai is a city where people are heartless and business-minded. But this is not always true.
Before coming to Mumbai, I had heard people talking about the undying spirit of Mumbai but never got to know what its all about.
When I recall what happened in Mumbai on 26th November, I am taken aback by the strength and resilience that Mumbaikars exhibited subsequently. That day I was puttering around my flat after a gruelling day at work, performing some mundane yet vitally important household chores. Suddenly I got a call from my close friend R. Sriram(who stays in Santacruz) who told me about the terrorist attack. Immediately I switched on my tv and what I saw was something which was mix of everything – the shock, the fear, the pain,the tears. But the way People helped each other out in such testing times was incredible and speaks volume of the spirit of Mumbai.
'The spirit of Mumbai' isn't just a pretty phrase — it's a reality that comes to the fore every time the city is struck by disaster .
But talking about the spirit of Mumbai without mentioning the life in local trains will be a great injustice to the whole story. Commuting through local trains is not an experience-its an ordeal, and if you want to see real spirit of Mumbai then the local trains are best option one can think of.
Everyday it’s a new experience here. What is Real Mumbai all about? Is it what we get to see everyday? People who are too hard-pressed for time to help themselves let alone help others; or people who go out of the way to help even strangers when disaster strikes.
I salute the undying spirit of Mumbai.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

LALIT MODI- The new face of corporate India


The other day I was watching the IPL -2 post-match ceremony and the way Mr. Lalit Modi-the man who changed the landscape of Indian cricket by launching Indian Premier League, addressed all the cricket lovers, both in the stadium and watching from tv-sets , i am sure it left a mark in their hearts. Lalit Modi- the IPL Commissioner, has taken cricket into a new era, turning a sport that can be baffling to watch for five days into an action-packed game lasting for few hours. He has conceived and executed the idea of IPL with a spectacular success.

He is the man who was instrumental in the happy marriage of cricket and entertainment. This astute businessman was not only able to boost the revenues of BCCI through this new format of cricket,which is raking lot of moolahs, but also added glamour to it by inviting bollywood stars and people from corporate world to be stakeholders of IPL.

As the election dates clashed with IPL-2 and the Government showed its reluctance in providing adequate security arrangements , the fate of IPL-2 seemed to be hanging in air. Without Govt. support, it was obvious that its not going to be a smooth sailing for IPL-2 and cricet fans will be deprived of all the fun and entertainment provided by IPL

But Mr. Modi had other things in his mind. He decided to shift the season-2 of IPL to South Africa in order to keep his promise to all the cricket fans of organizing this tournament in April.And its worth mentioning that all the arrangements for organizing this mega-event were made in less than four weeks and it was possible because of the sheer commitment of Lalit Modi and his team.
The way he managed to organize IPL-2 in South Africa in such a short span, putting all the apprehensions aside, speaks volume of his managerial skills .

And with Mr. Lalit Modi as a lead anchor for IPL,the only thing which comes into my mind is:

"The difficult was completed immediately, it was the impossible which took little time."

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Finally a full stop to The Satyam Saga


With TechMahindra finally getting the controlling stake after a 3-month drama, all the market speculations about the future of this so called India's Enron were put to rest on Monday bringing much needed respite for the employees and customers.Ever since Satyam's founder Raju confessed of a financial fraud, there was a big question mark on the fate of its employees and clients. But when TechMahindra clinched the deal by beating its rivals such as engineering conglomerate L&T and a group led by Mr.Wilbur Ross to acquire this battered firm, it came as a breath of fresh air after 3-months of ordeal for all the stakeholders of Satyam. Due to the sincere efforts and timely action of the government appointed board which was formed to oversee the resurrection process of the fraud-hit company, the future of many employees is now in safe hands and this is a major step in boosting the Indian Corporate image.
But this is just the ground work and a lot needs to be done . With its huge liability and long list of lawsuits, Satyam can be a white elephant for TechMahindra if not handled carefully.
Tech Mahindra faces the daunting task of reshaping Satyam, a company at the heart of India’s biggest corporate scandal.
And the good part about this saga is that satyam gives you a company picture not like Lehman Brothers or Enron where you find only buried souls finding their way to salvation.
But it remains to be seen whether TechMahindra , with its huge experience , is able to transform the maligned business firm into a profit-making company or not. Given the potential pitfalls which the new management still have to navigate, this seems to be a daunting task but not the impossible one.
Finally i would like to quote Euriprides who once said:
" There is in the worst of fortune the best chances for a happy change ."
And this seems more apt to the satyam saga.