The magic 'number'

Last week, I was reading a book called ' Gods and Godmen in India' by Khushwant Singh and it was a pleasure reading that book as very few authors have the guts what it takes to charge like a raging bull to attack the epidemic of Gods( i believe demi-gods would have been more apt) and godmen that has swept the nation in recent years. In that book , he has also mentioned about four things which are mostly in the minds of Indians and one of them is market ( For other three, Read the book).So what is  stock market all about ? Is it just a number or more than that ?

For some, its a 'support' level while for others its a  'resistance' level. Some call it a 'bullish' phase while other term it as a 'bearish' phase. But why such a hype about this number ? Perhaps no other number draws so much attention in middle and upper class as the numbers on the Sensex.It takes only few swings in the stock market for the people to change their opinion about equity market.Like, when sensex touched the 8000 level, everything about the stock markets looked uncomfortable and there were talks of further dips upto 6000.

And when the recent rally took place and the Sensex touched 16K, the very people who were then skeptical about the stock market are now not tired of predicting new 'Highs' for the Sensex with every passing day. We can see the changing mood of so-calledStock pundits & leading global investment houses, thanks to change in those 'Magic numbers'. There are many experts( rather Craps , saying all the non-sense things to further their own interests) appearing on the business channels trying to grab the attention of the people by predicting the new levels of the Sensex without even thinking about their blunders in the past.

But for us,the investors, while it is natural to go with the tide, some rules of investing don't change siply because the mood in the environment has undergone a change. Some understand it easily while others are forced to understand the hard way ( after loosing huge amount). But one thing is true that equity will always provide us a good earning opportunity ( a faster one) but can never give us the comfort of safety like the one in traditional investment opportunities. It holds well irrespective of the sensex level, bullish or bearish phase.

Here, I would like to quote, Benjamin Graham,the legendry investment Guru -

" In the short term, market is a 'voting'  machine whereon countless individuals register their choices that are product partly of reason and partly of emotion. However, in the long-term, the market is a 'weighing' machine on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism."

HAPPY INVESTING

Sugar Outlook

With reference to our earlier post “Market Outlook” , we again reaffirm our faith in the sugar stocks.But before giving the reasons for the same, its better to understand the factors which drive the prices of this commodity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are 4 factors that can determine the price direction for sugar in future.

1)  Dollar-A stronger Dollar usually means weaker commodity prices. We saw

this when the March Dollar Index rallied from 76.30 (9/22/08) to 89.74 (11/19/08). During this same period, March ’09 sugar prices dropped from 14.72 (9/26/08) to 10.44 (10/24/08). If the Dollar continues to rise, the upside potential for sugar could be limited.
2) Equity Markets-The price movement in the equity markets can have an affect on the sugar market. A weak equity market will continue to feed fears of slowing demand. This will pressure prices and/or limit the upside.

3) Crude Oil- There was a correlation between crude oil and sugar prices between 2004 and 2006. This was due to the increase use of turning sugar into ethanol. In 2004, crude broke above the $40.00 level. This “breakout” resulted in a 2-year bull run, in which prices topped out at 78.40 in 2006. During this same 2 year span, sugar prices rallied from 5.27 (2/2004) to 19.73 (2/2006).

The correlation ended after these markets topped out in 2006. As we all know, crude resumed its bull run in 2007 and pushed to a high of 147.27 in July 2008. Sugar, on the other hand, did not get near its 2006 high.
With crude prices back around the $40-$50 level, we may see the relationship return. Some Energy analysts have talked about crude prices down to $25.00-$30.00. If this happens, we could see sugar prices move significantly lower. This lower move in sugar could lead to a good buying opportunity in 2009.
4) Demand-As with any physical commodity, demand is a key factor for price
direction. As I mentioned earlier in this report, expectations were released in the last quarter of 2008 that demand would exceed production for the 2008-2009 marketing year.

**Extracted from Commodity report

 And the following factors have made us believe that the sugar story is far from over:

Parts of Brazil have had four times more than normal rain due to the El Nino effect, adversely affecting sugarcane crop. Due to this, Brazil’s sugar production is expected to fall short of the estimated 32 – 33 mt to 30.3 million tons in 2009-10.

Besides India, Pakistan and Bangladesh also plan to import the sweetener to cater to their domestic demand. Further Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest sugar buyer, may also step up imports to stem the domestic prices.

World outlook

 Worldwide demand for sugar will exceed output by 9.35 million tons in the year ending Sept. 30, more

than the 7.8 million tons projected in May, according to London-based International Sugar Organization.

Please Click Here to check the sugar prices.



We reiterate our buy call on sugar stocks with good fundamentals.Some of the good stocks which will give better returns in the near future are :

1. Bajaj Hindusthan,  --     Click for  Stock  Price Details
2. Shree Renuka Sugars --Click for Stock Price Details
3.  Simbhaoli Sugars --     Click for Stock Price Details
4.  Gayatri Sugars--          Click for Stock Price Details
5. Dwarikesh Sugars --    Click for Stock Price Details
6. Ponni Sugars Erode. --Click for Stock Price Details
   
   
   
    

"HAPPY INVESTING"

NHPC IPO - The new 'blockbuster'

The recent market rally has given the much needed impetus to the IPO season and the latest one to jump this bandwagon is NHPC. The preliminary data shows that it has been oversubscribed by 7 times. Both from the short-term as well as long-term point, it seems to be a good pick . In short-term , investors can pocket a handsome return on account of listing gains and in long-term this company will offer excellent returns by selling clean energy.

Also investing in NHPC IPO will be an intelligent move as it is from the power sector which is the flavour of the season and has excellent growth prospects considering the huge untapped hydel potential we have in India. Also coming from the stable of govt., this IPO has an edge over others as govt. will ensure that the IPO is listed at a 'good' premium to earn the investor's faith. The success of NHPC would fuel the scope of further disinvestment in other govt. entities.This will be a good bet in the long run and it is essential to remain invested in this company to reap huge benefits.

The valuation seems to be perfect and this may tilt the balance in its favour. In grey market , it is running at a premium of Rs. 10 and above which means that the stock may be listed somewhere around Rs.46. Seeing the current subscription level, it seems to be difficult to get the required allotments. But there is no harm in going for it. The only cause of concern is the market sentiments at the time of listing as any negative sentiment can drive the prices southwards. But the govt. has enough financial muscle to ensure its 'smooth' listing and the prices running southwards seem to be a remote possibility, although it can't be ruled out.

"Happy Investing."

Market Outlook- Tough times ahead

With the monsoon playing hide-and-seek with us, the problems are only going to aggravate and this might prove to be a red signal to the recent rally which the market witnessed. The monsoon problem appears to be more severe than we had anticipated.The govt. may now have to come up with relief packages to support the struggling farmers who are highly dependent on monsoons for agriculture.The problem of food security might crop up due to poor monsoons and the govt. might have to build up huge reserves.

But poor monsoon is not only responsible for huge selling pressure which the sensex witnessed in the last two days.The market had run up sharply in the last few days so a correction was definitely on the cards.

But still 'intelligent investors' can make the most of this volatile market by taking some calculated risks.One commodity which has shown a continuous uptrend for the past couple of months is sugar . The prices are continuously rising and the poor monsoon may drive the prices of this commodity northwards. The prices have nearly doubled since the last few months. This may create a big hole in our pocket by increasing the household budget and but for sugar companies its a much-awaited 'business' time. So taking positions in sugar stocks like Balrampur Chini and Triveni Engineering will help us to capitalize the price rise in this commodity. And weak monsoon forecasts will only boost the profits of these companies. The target for Balrampur Chini is Rs.150 and for Triveni Engineering it is Rs.130. So it makes a good business sense to ride the upward trend the of these stocks and thereby pocketing handsome profit on the way.

Due to high volatility of these stocks, a cautious approach is needed while entering in these stocks.

"Happy Investing."

Adani Power IPO- Is it really a blockbuster ?

As I was going through the newspaper today, my eyes stopped at one of the headlines which announced :" Adani Power IPO is a blockbuster". I wonder whether it really is. But the media is working full time to portray as the biggest hit in present scenario as it has been over-subscribed 21 times. Clearly this was an intelligent move by the company to encash the positive market sentiment which is giving the much needed impetus to the sensex in its upward rally. But how long this rally will last is also a matter of debate ?

We should not forget the Reliance Power IPO which is the biggest hit of all times. There was nothing wrong with the Reliance Power IPO except the timing. But you never know about the market behaviour and its practically impossible to time the market. No one saw the economic recession coming and this company became its biggest victim. The mania that surrounded the latter last year does not seem to be there this time around. But given the current market conditions, even much lower subscription numbers for Adani's IPO are being touted as 'blockbuster'.

But is it really worth investing in IPO such turbulent market conditions. I personally think that let the company test the market for 2-3 months and then go for it if its performnce is in line with the expectations.

Many of my colleagues(Vijay Panpalia & others) have invested in this IPO in the hope of getting handsome returns. I don't doubt their business acumen but i do feel that this was not the right move. But they are also proven masters of this game and may chalk out some strategy to make the most of it. The prominent strategy being selling this once it touches 130 level which it will certainly reach. So everyone is trying to make the most of the recent market sentiment in his or her own way.

I have my own reasons for not investing in this IPO. The first and the foremost reason being its overvaluation. In my opinion the correct valuation would have been around Rs. 70-75. After all, investors have been offered shares in these companies, when these have no business revenues or profits to boast of. And nothing's going to come for the next 2-3 years as well since the power projects have along gestation period. Retail investors are again been made to see 'Power' as a 'hot' sector. We hope they do not burn their hand again given that these IPOs have been sold not on real company profits, but on imaginary profits that are 'likely' to come a few years down the line.

I am not against this IPO or any other but i do feel that investors should do their homework before investing their hard earned money.

" Happy investing."

Tariff hike : Power 'shock' or an 'eyeopener'

The recent tariff hike by Mumbai utilities especially Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. and BEST led to violent protests by people across Mumbai distribution area who on the behest of some political parties went on rampage destroying public property and bringing total chaos. But we need to ask ourselves that are these protests justified and that too in the manner in which these protests are 'organised'( to serve the political ambitions). From a consumer point of view, the protest is justified as this steep tariff hike is going to create a big hole in his pocket. But this tariff hike was inevitable due to variety of factors and so we should understand the rationale behind this.

First and the foremost thing is that we should understand the power scenario in India . In India, due to generation-demand mismatch , the power is sold on higher rates and as a result the distribution utilities are bound to pass this heat on the consumers.Now,in case of Mumbai, which enjoys zero load-shedding status on account of being the commercial capital, the gap between demand and supply is huge and so the mumbai utilities have to pay a higher price in order to meet the shortfall of power. And obviously the higher cost of power is to be borne by consumers. So this was one of the important reason for the price hike.

But who is responsible for this supply-demand gap which is responsible for purchase of costly power? Its the apathy shown by the government towards the power sector and lack of foresightedness which is responsible for the grim situation in which the state has been pushed by the so called 'visionary' leaders. In the last few years , practically no or negligible generation has been added in the state while the demand has continuously increased and this also includes the regime of the political parties which are spearheading the protests to further their own ambitions. And the most ironical part is that common man is taken for a ride by these parties who are just organizing protests to further their political goals .These agitations have more political tones with assembly elections approaching which is not going to solve this critical problem unless and until we try to find the out the root cause of the problem.

And the main cause is the huge gap between demand and supply. So the government will have to take extra-ordinary efforts to invite investments for adding new generating capacity in the state. Also the govt. should expedite the process of acquring land for the power projects which are on hold due to this land acquisition problem.

Also the following steps, if taken, will be instrumental in reducing the demand-supply gap which in turn will bring the much needed respite to the consumers in the form of economical power:

1) Mumbai should be allocated share in the central generating stations(CGS).
2) Mumbai should be allowed to draw from UI pool when the grid frequency is good and the power is available at cheaper rate.
3) The existing generation capacities should be expanded ( wherever possible) to meet the ever increasing demand as augmenting the capacity of existing power plant is less time consuming than installing in a new power plant.
4) The generation companies in Mumbai having surplus power should not be allowed to sell the power outside Mumbai when the city is reeling under severe power crisis. The sale of power should be allowed only when Mumbai is self-sufficient to meet its demand.
5) The CERC should put a tab on the prices of power purchased from the open market as this will curb the volatility of the prices.
6) All subsidies on power should be done away with as people will judiciously use power only when the pay the true power cost and not the subsidised one.


Also many people have this wrong notion that the utilities are responsible for effecting this steep hike which is not true. The electricity business is a highly regulated business and the utilities can not hike the tariff as per their whims and fancies. These prices are hiked by regulatory commissions which in our case is MERC.

So as an informed citizen , it should be our moral obligation to ask our leaders and representatives that what they have been doing all these years. We should refrain from falling prey to their ideas of adopting violent means to protest the tariff hike as that will only aggravate the problem instead of solving it.
Remember these protests are just poll gimmicks to futher their polictical ambitions and a face saving formula to hide their failures in adding new generation capacities in the state.

MUMBAI- Growing apathy towards elections

The Elections 2009 are different from other parliamentary elections as these elections are being held in the backdrop of so many important issues like recession, terrorism etc which will decide the future of India in its journey to become a super power. So it was but obvious that public especially those in Mumbai will take part in this democratic festival with full fervor.

It was expected that the tragic 26/11 terrorist attacks would galvanize the city and there will be a spirited participation of people from all walks of life in the electoral process.
But the voter turn-out on 30th April,the day Mumbai went to polls , belied all the expectations. On April 30th, as Mumbai voted, and camera crews whizzed around expecting a huge rush thronging polling booths, a certain reality dawned. It was evident that when it comes to choose between two V’s – Vote or Vaccation, many chose latter.
The people of this city, which is famous for its undying spirit, were angry at the unprofessional handling of the 26/11 terror attacks. This election they were expected to come out in huge numbers and vote for a stable government. But the JOSH seems to have died down.
It is ironical that the city which has major contribution in total tax collection in India failed( due to lesser contribution) when it came to exercising voting rights to elect people who will be deciding the use of taxpayer’s money.
At less than 43% voting percentage , it showed not just apathy, but sheer contemptuous disinterestedness.All media campaigns and Jaago-Re initiatives urging people to vote for change, vote for stability, vote for future seems to have fallen on deaf ears. One Lead India campaign cannot undo years of page 3 hard-sell.
But we need to find out the reason for the voter’s growing apathy towards the electoral process not only in Mumbai but all over India.
In todays scenerio when the election fever is scaling new heights daily , many voters are confused whether to exercise their fundamental right of voting or not? And if yes, then whom to vote for? Vote for the candidate or the party?Many a times the candidates seems promising but the party has a dubious history, or if the party seems encourging then the candidate has a shady history The big question is whom to select?
And let me remind you , the common man realizes that the elections are near only when the roads gets repaired, the potholes get filled in temporarily and the local politicians act as sychophants. I don’t understand why there is no retirement age for the political professionals. Besides there is no pre set eligibility criteria for the post of the first citizen and the prime minister of a country where more than a billion people thrive but there exists a qualification criteria even for a government clerk.We need to think seriously on this issue.

But what was the reason behind mystifying dip in voting numbers in Mumbai. Mumbai being the economic capital does not have a political character. It is a city with a commercial outlook , pregnant with career dreams , bare survival and the lure of endless monies and good fortunes.
It understands the language of Sensex,saving, success , growth & survival. Here issues like Godhra & Nandigram take a backseat when it comes to issues like credit policy, PLR, exchange rates. I am not saying that these issues are irrelevant but political issues are also important as they are also going to decide the future of India.

But what I observed that the so-called upper class has apathy towards elections and the common man still braved the scorching heat to discharge his duty as a responsible citizen and this should be solace for all of us as ,we, the common people are the pulse of this nation.
In-fact many of my colleagues took extra efforts and braved the Sun to take part in the electoral process.

So situation has certainly deteriorated in the past few years but the only silver lining in this cloud is that common public still believes that the only way to bring out the desired change is through democratic process.
All said and done, the political landscape in India would be one to watch out in the years to come!!